It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. —Mark Twain

Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance. —George Bernard Shaw

Learn enough from history to bear reality patiently, and respect one another's delusions. —Will Durant

Expertise is a fickle, funny thing. It’s a lot like integrity: claimed by many though possessed by few.

Purveyors of this rarefied thing—those who deem themselves “experts”—resemble emperors in that they come in all shapes and sizes and seldom wear clothes.

These men and women pride themselves on their ability to peer around the corners of their fields, to picture the future coming into shape before it materializes for the rest of the world. And yet, they seldom see past the end of their respective noses.

Faux experts are like devils: The greatest trick they ever pulled was to convince the world they didn't exist.

Real experts are like Bigfoot: they are exceptionally hard to find (if they even exist at all).

If recent events are any indication (e.g. COVID, the politically correct industrial complex, social media’s summary execution of capital-t Truth, et al), faux experts are sadly a lot more prevalent than real ones.

A great scene from Men In Black comes to mind:

Tommy Lee Jones’ words bear repeating:

Humans, for the most part, don't have a clue. They don't want one or need one, either.

They're happy. They think they have a good bead on things.

Why the big secret? People are smart. They can handle it.

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.

Fifteen hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was the centre of the universe.

Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet.

Imagine what you’ll know tomorrow.

More plainly, conventional wisdom is just that: conventional—conforming to established practice or accepted standards; traditional.

No matter how wrong our answers du jour might be, they feel better than saying, “I have no idea what’s going on or what may happen next.”

As such, be sure not to take present things at their face value.

Never before has so much knowledge been claimed by so many who, in reality, know so little.

This shroud of ignorance spans all sorts of disciplines and practices on which pundits and prognosticators love to pontificate.

Three pertinent fields come to mind:

Technology

Some past headlines about Apple (which now boasts a market capitalization of over $3,000,000,000,000)

Entertainment

Mario Puzo, the author of the Godfather books who'd also adapted them to film, had no idea what he was doing as he'd never written a screenplay before. After winning two Oscars, he decided to buy a book on screenwriting to learn how. In the first chapter, it said "Study Godfather I.”

“Nobody knows anything…Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.” —William Goldman

American record executive Doug Morris was considered the best music talent spotter at the turn of the 21st century. Nonetheless, even Morris struggled to identify winners; the best he could hope for was to fail a little less than his competitors. Even when he succeeded, winners didn't last long: "The number of orange juice cartons you sold one year was an excellent guide to the number you were going to sell the next. The number of Limp Bizkit albums was not.” Every year, Morris had to reinvent his entire product line from scratch. Mostly, that meant failing. The typical CD had a shorter shelf life than yogurt, and every year Morris ordered millions of them dumped into landfills. Despite forty years in the music business, he still never knew for certain which of his acts would succeed, and the Hollywood dictum that 'Nobody knows anything' held equally true for every other type of show business.

Investing

As if the above wasn’t scary enough, it’s not just the experts. It’s everyone.

Investor-cum-guru Howard Marks says it well in a recent investor letter:

It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what’s going on.

This took me many years to learn: No one knows what they’re doing.

There are no adults. We’re all just scared kids trying to figure it out and making it up as they go along.

Realizing that everyone is “Just Some Guy or Girl” is life-changing. In this awareness is tremendous power because it unlocks both empathy and possibility.

Understanding that each person is doing the best that he/she can with limited knowledge in the face of an infinitely-complex future leaves room for the grace, patience, and empathy so lacking in our modern times.

More, the realization that “successful” people are human beings made of flesh and blood—not mythic, untouchable deities—allows men and women the world over to ask Why not me? in the face of the tremendous opportunities life offers.

Marc Andreessen explains it well:

The world is a malleable place. If you know what you want, and you go for it with maximum energy and passion, the world will often reconfigure itself around you much more quickly and easily than you would think.

When I was young, I thought other people could give me wisdom.

Now that I’m older, I know this isn’t true.

Nothing can or will change the fact that all of our knowledge is about the past and all of our decisions are about the future.

That the future is knowable is no more than a mirage—shimmering in the distance and leading many smart people further into the desert where neither models nor forecasts nor expertise will save them.

All this to say that abdicating critical thought to those in castles made of sand or ivory towers is at best irresponsible and at worst downright dangerous.

As my late grandfather would say, “Your only security in life is yourself.”

Leaving your personal, professional, intellectual, and emotional security to others that know and care less about your life, family, and prospects is a bad idea no matter how you slice it.

At the end of the day, no one really knows what they’re doing.

We’re all trying our best with the hand we’ve been dealt—eking forward and groping along in an unfathomable dark.

With that, be a good steward to yourself, your God, your people, and your planet.

Beyond that it’s all just (White) noise .

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